A shocking setback could derail Australia's Ashes campaign before it even begins. Rumours are swirling that captain Pat Cummins may be absent from the series opener in Perth — and possibly from the entire five-Test battle against England. But here's where it gets controversial: while official voices remain tight-lipped, confidence in his recovery seems to be slipping.
Cummins has been wrestling with a stubborn back injury, and recent scans show that although there’s been some improvement in his lumbar stress issue, the healing process is far from complete. With just six weeks until the Ashes kicks off on 21 November, the 32-year-old is still unable to return to his most demanding role — steaming in to bowl at full pace.
This injury has already sidelined him from Australia’s recent white-ball encounters against South Africa and New Zealand. He’s also confirmed to miss the upcoming ODI and T20 clashes with India, as his rehabilitation program takes priority over all competitive cricket. Cricket Australia has so far declined to offer specifics on his fitness situation, leaving fans and pundits alike speculating whether he might yet make the first Test.
If Cummins is missing, the blow will be enormous. His last appearance came in July, during Australia’s dominant 3-0 Test sweep over the West Indies. Since reclaiming the Ashes in 2018, Australia has leaned heavily on his leadership and skill. Without him, the bowling attack will likely see Scott Boland slot in alongside Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood — and Boland is coming off a hat-trick in his most recent Test, so he’s far from a weak link.
In the captaincy department, Steve Smith is almost certain to step in. Having taken the reins in several matches since Cummins assumed the Test captaincy in late 2021, Smith’s experience could prove vital against England’s formidable lineup.
Timing adds another layer of pressure. The series concludes with the fifth Test in Sydney starting 4 January, offering Cummins limited opportunity to make an impact if he misses the early matches. That said, Australia coach Andrew McDonald remains publicly optimistic. Speaking on SEN radio last month, McDonald acknowledged the situation as far from ideal, but insisted there’s still time for Cummins to return: "It was a routine scan after the West Indies tour. He does have a lumbar bone stress issue, but we’ll work through his return-to-play pathway. We’re hopeful he’ll take a key part in the Ashes."
And this is the part most people miss: while injuries often lead to cautious management, the psychological impact on a team losing its trusted leader before a marquee series can be just as significant as the physical gap on the field. If Cummins is absent, will Australia’s confidence wobble under pressure from England’s aggressive approach?
Do you think Cummins should be rushed back if only partially fit, or would Australia be wiser to prioritise his long-term health over immediate Ashes glory? Share your thoughts — this debate could split cricket fans down the middle.
